The 3-Year Tenant in a 30-Year Building: Why an Industrialized Data Center Strategy Must Replace "Build-to-Suit"

By Tony Grayson Tech Executive (ex-SVP Oracle, AWS, Meta) & Former Nuclear Submarine Commander

The Universal Dock: Separating the 30-year Shell from the 3-year Cell. This is not a shipping container; it is volumetric, industrialized construction designed for rapid technology swaps.

The golden era of the 15-year hyperscale lease is evolving into something far more volatile.

We have moved from 10–15-year, single-tenant halls to 3–5-year, hardware-driven deployments. The lease used to outlive the gear; now the hardware roadmap dictates the lease.

To be clear: For Hyperscalers with decade-long visibility, "Build-to-Suit" still has a place. But that population is shrinking relative to the market's total volume. Net new demand is shifting toward AI Training (short-term, massive density), Inference (distributed, churny), and Repatriated Enterprise workloads. Companies are realizing public cloud isn’t the only answer for steady-state AI, but who still need flexibility.

The problem? We are building static monuments for a fluid market. With the arrival of the NVIDIA GB200 NVL72 and the massive density spike that comes with it, we face a hard truth: If you build a bespoke hall for today’s AI requirement, you are risking stranded capital tomorrow.

As I wrote earlier, we are seeing signs of a "Vendor Financing Trap" where infrastructure spend is outpacing sustainable demand. In this environment, you need an industrialized data center strategy that prioritizes agility over monuments.

We need to stop building data halls and start building "Universal Docks."

By "Universal Dock," I mean a long-life shell with standardized power/liquid interfaces that can accept any vendor’s skid-based power and cooling.

The "Lease Mismatch" and IRR Destruction

The risk profile has shifted. If you hard-code a facility for a specific high-density tenant who leaves after a single hardware generation, the economics collapse.

Consider this scenario:

The Math: You build a $150M BTS hall with a 7-year underwriting horizon. The tenant signs a 3-year lease for a specific AI cluster. When they exit, retooling the embedded plumbing and rigid power distribution costs $40–60M.

The Real Estate Case: Valuation & Liquidity

This isn't just about avoiding downside; it's about driving valuation. A forward-thinking industrialized data center strategy changes the asset class:

1. Tighter Cap Rates: Assets that can pivot between AI Training and Standard Cloud without demolition have lower re-tenanting risk and shorter downtime (weeks vs. months). The market will reward this liquidity with tighter cap rates.

2. Redeployable Assets: By moving Tenant Improvements into skid-based modules, we shift from "write-off when tenant leaves" to "redeployable inventory." Lenders and rating agencies will ultimately price this differently than sunk concrete costs.

The Tenant’s Perspective: Why Should You Care?

If you are an AI tenant, you might ask: "Why do I care about your IRR?"

You should care because fungibility equals velocity.

• Speed to Deploy: You don't wait 18 months for a bespoke build; you plug into a dock that’s already permitted and energized.

• No Exit Penalties: You aren't amortizing a concrete monument over a 3-year lease.

• Roadmap Insurance: If NVIDIA or AMD shifts the cooling spec in 2027, you aren't stuck in a facility hard-wired for 2025. You just swap the skids.

The Exoskeleton: Rethinking Industrialized Data Center Strategy

The solution is the separation of the shell from the cell.

We must treat the shell as an Exoskeleton...a durable, long-life structure providing only physical security and a "Utility Bus" (main power/water). Everything inside like the "data hall" must be a swappable cartridge.

The "Container" Fallacy: We Are Not Talking About Boxes

We need to clear up a massive misconception. When I say "modular," most people picture a shipping container in a parking lot. This is not that.

Shipping containers are fixed metal boxes with poor ergonomics. We are talking about Industrialized Construction...creating massive, open white space using volumetric skids that plug and play.

In the nuclear navy, we learned that Contextual Intelligence is everything. You cannot apply a static framework to a dynamic battlefield. The same applies here: You cannot apply stick-built construction methods to a dynamic AI hardware market. Moving complexity to the factory floor (Industrialized Construction) is the only way to achieve the precision and speed required.

The Standard Is Here (Almost)

For this to work at scale, we need standardization.

In late 2025, at the Global Summit, the Open Compute Project (OCP) formalized the Open Data Center Initiative, explicitly pushing for "fungible data centers." We are seeing real traction:

• Power: Project Mount Diablo (led by Meta) is driving standards for 400V disaggregated power delivery.

• The Hardest Problem (Cooling): Project Deschutes (led by Google) is attempting to standardize liquid cooling interconnects. Note: This is the highest-risk area. With varying flow rates, temperatures, and chemistries, if we don't standardize the plumbing interface, we risk a proprietary lock-in war that benefits no one.

• Grid: OCP’s roadmap now includes grid interactions and BESS—critical because the substation connection must outlive the first tenant.

The Playbook: Who Does What?

We are likely 2–3 years away from this being table stakes. Here is how we get there:

• Developers: Stop pouring complexity into the slab. Design shells as Universal Docks with "USB-like" utility headers.

• Tenants: Demand fungible shells. Refuse to pay for the demolition of the previous tenant's mistakes.

• OEMs: Build against OCP-style interfaces so your skids are plug-compatible across different developers' sites.

The Bottom Line

The days of the static data hall are numbered. We have to stop building "perfect" data centers for today's specs.

I often say that you will die with one of two things: a collection of scars or a collection of what-ifs. (Read more on The Math on Regret). Sticking to the "safe" Build-to-Suit model because it worked for the last decade is a recipe for a "what-if" when the market leaves you behind.

In this new market, physical agility is the only true hedge against volatility.

Tony

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Tony Grayson is a recognized Top 10 Data Center Influencer, a successful entrepreneur, and the President & General Manager of Northstar Enterprise + Defense.

A former U.S. Navy Submarine Commander and recipient of the prestigious VADM Stockdale Award, Tony is a leading authority on the convergence of nuclear energy, AI infrastructure, and national defense. His career is defined by building at scale: he led global infrastructure strategy as a Senior Vice President for AWS, Meta, and Oracle before founding and selling a top-10 modular data center company.

Today, he leads strategy and execution for critical defense programs and AI infrastructure, building AI factories and cloud regions that survive contact with reality.

Read more at: tonygraysonvet.com